The General Election in Nigeria keeps spraying fear and tension in the mind of an average Nigerian on daily basis as the election date keeps drawing closer and threats keep bruising in the air from the camps of the two major Political Parties, which are PDP and APC respectively.
While some Notable APC supporters and Navigators are threatening to form a parallel government if President Goodluck Ebele Jonathan (GEJ) is re-elected, many notable pro-Jonathan and many PDP members have also vowed to cause mayhem if General Mohammed Buhari should emerge Nigeria President again in the coming general election.
Though, a of bit initial predicted violence over the coming general election has reduced, after the recent postponement of the General Election from February 14th, 2014 to March 28th, 2015, due to insecurity issue.
News has it that, Security Agencies are not ready for the election, the safety of the officials of the electoral body, INEC and the electorates could not be guarantee, for there is going to be wage of war against the notable Insurgent group called, 'Boko Haram' by the Security agencies during the initial scheduled period; 14th of February 2015.
We should not also forget that, the threats and challenges posed by Boko Haram extremists, political provocateurs, and ordinary criminals are vast. Mitigating the level and scope of killings is all that is left at this point and this has also places prone to political violence in the country.
The stakes for Nigeria is already profound, while failing to stop bloodshed has reverse years of positive development, and generates deep distrust of democratic governance and the rule of law.
The message of violence from the camps of the two major political parties should not be under estimated in this coming election, just as what Nigerians experience after the 2011 general election that brought President Jonathan to power after defeating the same General Buhari, who is now contesting again.
Failed prevention of insecurity may require costly and disruptive military campaigns to offer protection, break up skirmishes, and impose stability. To prevent election violence more effectively, local and international peace-builders need to spend more time targeting the underlying frustrations, financial incentives, or fears of those behind the violence. Like touring rock stars, most international election support teams may also show up for the big show shortly before curtain call.
Furthermore, in order to avoid a post election violence or parallel government as claimed by the opposition Party if otherwise, there is therefore a need for transparent vote count, high turnout, and professional election administration do matter because, corruption and vote-rigging can frustrate voters, and even trigger violent rioting and protests within the electorates. But a more strategic and sustained focus on factors like gender inequality, poor leadership, refugee movements, or the free flow of arms has a better shot at ensuring peaceful environment during and after election.
In addition, there is no how a marginalise(d) youth or unfavoured group of people can easily keep mute over any unfavourable election results, therefore, conflict experts should identify brewing sources of frustration that could motivate frustrated people to take up arms, pinpoint armed groups, and identify likely hotspots of election violence during and after the election to avoid uncontrollable violence because, marginalized youth tend to commit violence.
In a worst-case scenario, another thing that is also likely to cause violence is that, if the Incumbents are unwilling to accept defeat. This will not only cause violence, but also coerce international invasion and target economic sanctions, or persuade the promise of foreign assistance, or access to regional organizations and new markets. We need to understand that as Election Day approaches; international diplomats can persuade or pressure provocateurs, by engaging in quiet diplomacy for personal interests.
Lastly, President Goodluck Ebele Jonathan (the incumbent) under the People Democratic Party (PDP) has promised to ensure credible election, which will not in any way lead to violence if fulfil. Also, General Mohammed Buhari, a former Military Head of State and a major opposition under the All Progressive people Congress (APC) agreements to free and fair election is definitely going to be the best for Nigeria. Meanwhile, it still remains unclear whether surgical interventions of Security Agencies for merely 6 weeks recent postponement of the General election from its initial scheduled date; Februrary 14th 2015 to 28th Match 2015, can reduce the risk of violence during and after the election because, Election violence is context specific. Thus, the lessons gathered from 2011 pre and post elections and around the world should be kept close at hand before this coming 2015 general election in Nigeria will make negative headlines about Nigeria process.
Sent from my BlackBerry® wireless handheld from Glo Mobile.
0 comments:
Post a Comment